Shallowing: Since the second half of the 60s of the last century, the process of shallowing of the Caspian Sea began. This caused concern among the leadership of the former USSR. In 1977, the lowest level of the Caspian Sea in the last 400 years was recorded. Then it fell by 3 meters.
Cyclicity: The Caspian Sea level changes in a cyclical pattern. At the moment, the current drop in sea level has not yet reached the last minimum level of 1977. Scientists' forecasts vary, but some suggest that by the end of the century the Caspian Sea could become 34% smaller, and the water level could fall by 9-19 meters by 2100.
Natural and cyclical nature: The head of the Center for Environmental Forecasting, Telman Zeynalov, notes that the change in the level of the Caspian Sea is in no way connected with climate change; it is natural and cyclical in nature1.
Thus, the shallowing of the Caspian Sea is a natural process that occurs in cycles and requires attention and monitoring to preserve this unique reservoir.
Since 1991, several hydroelectric power plants (HPPs) and dams have been built on the banks of the Volga. Here are some of them:
Kostromskaya GRES: Kostromskaya GRES is located in the Kostroma region, on the right bank of the Volga in the city of Volgorechensk. Its installed capacity is 3,660 MW1. This GRES is the third in terms of installed capacity in Russia after Surgutskaya GRES-2 and Reftinskaya GRES.
Other hydroelectric power plants and dams: In addition to the Kostroma GRES, there are a number of other hydroelectric power plants and dams on the Volga, such as the Ulyanovskaya GRES, Zhigulevskaya GRES, Saratovskaya GRES and others. They play an important role in the production of electricity and the regulation of water resources.
As for water use, hydroelectric power plants and state district power plants use water flows to produce electricity. Their capacity directly depends on the water pressure and the type of generators used. The Volga's water resources vary in different periods of the year, but the total volume of water in cubic meters used by hydroelectric power plants and state district power plants depends on their capacity and operating mode.
Eight hydroelectric power plants were designed and built on the Volga - Ivankovskaya, Uglichskaya, Rybinskaya, Nizhegorodskaya (Gorkovskaya), Cheboksary, Zhigulevskaya (Kuibyshevskaya), Saratovskaya, Volzhskaya (Volgogradskaya). The largest hydroelectric power plant is Volzhskaya, the energy output at the hydroelectric power plant is more than 11,600 million kWh. Large power plants also include Zhigulevskaya, Cheboksary, Saratovskaya, Nizhegorodskaya (more than 1,000 million kWh). The Rybinsk hydroelectric power station is slightly smaller, the Uglich hydroelectric power station is even smaller, and the Ivankovskaya hydroelectric power station produces less than 100 million kWh per year. In total, there are about 800 reservoirs in the Volga basin with a total useful volume of 101 km3 and a surface area of 30.4 thousand km2, which accumulate almost 70% of the average annual flow. The energy use of the basin has significant prospects. Thus, raising the level of the Cheboksary and Nizhnekamsk reservoirs to the design level will increase the annual electricity generation at the corresponding stations by 2.5 billion kWh, and by the same amount more - . It is possible to build a long-schedule pumped storage power station on large reservoirs. A significant replenishment of the Volga flow is possible using a pumped storage scheme from Lake Onega through the Volga-Balt (taking into account the relative proximity of the Leningrad NPP-2). RusHydro, which operates most of the cascade stations, is upgrading equipment, increasing capacity and output. In particular, between 2007 and 2015, the cascade capacity increased by more than 310 MW, which is comparable to the capacity of the Nizhne-Bureyskaya HPP. The modernization continues, and by 2023 it is planned to increase capacity by more than 520 MW. To date, eight hydroelectric power plants have been built on the Volga River, which are still operating. 1) Saratovskaya 2) Cheboksary 3) Volzhskaya 4) Zhigulevskaya 5) Uglichskaya 6) Nizhegorodskaya 7) Rybinskaya 8) Ivankovskaya.
Eight hydroelectric power stations were designed and built on the Volga:
How does the construction of dams, reservoirs, and hydroelectric power stations on the banks of the Volga after 1991 affect the inflow of the Volga into the Caspian Sea?
The construction of dams, reservoirs and hydroelectric power stations on the banks of the Volga after 1991 has an impact on the inflow of the Volga into the Caspian Sea. Here are some aspects of this impact:
Reduced flow: Dams and reservoirs that are built reduce the amount of water that enters the Volga River. This can affect its flow and, therefore, the inflow into the Caspian Sea.
Ecosystem change: The creation of reservoirs and hydroelectric power plants may change the ecosystem of the Volga River and its tributaries. This may affect fish resources, aquatic biodiversity and living conditions in the region.
Water Resources Regulation: The construction of hydroelectric power plants allows for the regulation of water resources, but can also cause problems associated with water deficit or excess in different seasons.
Environmental impacts: The impact on the nature and ecosystem of the Volga River may have long-term environmental consequences for the Caspian Sea.
Overall, building dams and hydroelectric power plants is a difficult balance between energy needs and conservation of natural resources. It is necessary to take into account environmental aspects and cooperate with neighboring countries to preserve the unique Caspian Sea.
In years rich in snow, the Volga gave the Caspian Sea 80% of the river flow, which amounted to 300-350 cubic km of water per year - the level rose at the maximum of solar activity, in years with little snow, the Volga gave only 200 cubic km at the minimum of solar activity - this led to a decrease in the sea level.
During periods when the annual runoff was close to natural, the Volga annually brought about 250 cubic kilometers of water to the Caspian Sea. This amount varied depending on snowfall and solar activity. In years with heavy snowfall, the Volga could deliver 300-350 cubic kilometers of water, and in years with little snow, only 200 cubic kilometers. These fluctuations in runoff affected the level of the Caspian Sea, causing it to rise during periods of snowfall and fall during periods of solar activity.
What is solar activity?
Solar activity is a change in the intensity of solar radiation that occurs in cycles approximately every 11 years. It is associated with changes in the number of sunspots on the surface of the Sun. During periods of solar activity, the number of sunspots increases and solar radiation becomes more intense. This can affect the Earth's climate, as well as the operation of satellites and power plants. During periods of minimal solar activity, the number of sunspots decreases and solar radiation becomes less intense. This cycle of solar activity is important for our planet and is studied by astronomers and climatologists.
How does solar activity affect the Earth's climate?
Solar activity is a change in the intensity of solar radiation that occurs in cycles approximately every 11 years. It is associated with changes in the number of sunspots on the surface of the Sun. During periods of solar activity, the number of sunspots increases and solar radiation becomes more intense. This can affect the Earth's climate in the following ways:
Effect on temperature: Changes in solar activity can have a small effect on the Earth's temperature. However, modern research shows that the effect of solar activity on the Earth's climate is much smaller than the effect of gas emissions such as greenhouse gases.
Effect on the atmosphere: Solar activity can affect the state of the upper atmosphere, including the ozone layer. This can affect climate processes such as heat and wind distribution.
Solar winds and the magnetic field: Solar winds and the Sun's magnetic field can also influence the Earth's magnetic field and affect climate systems.
Overall, although solar activity has some influence on Earth's climate, it is relatively small compared to other factors such as greenhouse gas emissions and changes in Earth's orbit.
What are greenhouse gases?
Greenhouse gases are gases with high transparency in the visible range and high absorption in the mid- and far infrared ranges. The presence of such gases in the atmospheres of planets leads to the greenhouse effect. The main greenhouse gases of the Earth are:
Water vapor (H2O): Responsible for more than 60% of the greenhouse effect on Earth. At the same time, an increase in the Earth's temperature caused by other factors increases evaporation and the overall concentration of water vapor in the atmosphere, which further intensifies the greenhouse effect.
Carbon dioxide (CO2): The content of carbon dioxide in the Earth's atmosphere is 405.5±0.1 ppm. It plays an important role in the greenhouse effect.
Methane (CH4): The atmospheric methane content is 1859±2 ppb. Methane also contributes to the greenhouse effect.
Ozone (O3): Ozone is present in the atmosphere and also affects the heat balance.
Nitric oxide (N2O): Its concentration is 329.9±0.1 ppb. It is also a greenhouse gas.
These gases form an insulating layer around the Earth that retains heat and maintains the planet's thermal balance. The greenhouse effect plays an important role in climate processes and climate change on our planet.
5 seas of the former USSR have a cyclicity of 100 years every 33 years the rise and fall of the sea level is the cycle of the sea - its structure
Solar activity plays an important role in the Earth's climate system. Here are some key aspects:
Solar radiation: The sun is the main source of energy on Earth. Its radiation warms our planet and influences the climate. However, the changes in solar radiation over the past few decades are not large enough to explain the observed global warming.
Solar cycles: The Sun goes through 11-year cycles of activity, including changes in solar radiation, sunspot numbers, and solar winds. However, the impact of these cycles on Earth's climate is small compared to other factors, such as greenhouse gases.
Greenhouse gases: Gases such as carbon dioxide (CO2) and methane (CH4) have a more powerful effect on climate than solar activity. Changes in the levels of these gases in the atmosphere cause global warming.
Thus, although solar activity affects climate, its contribution is relatively small compared to other factors, such as anthropogenic greenhouse gas emissions.
When will the Caspian Sea reach a critical point in terms of its level, taking into account climate models and the planet's greenhouse effect, and when will the rise begin?
The Caspian Sea is the largest landlocked body of water on Earth and can be classified as either the largest endorheic lake or a sea. The water in the Caspian is brackish, with salinity varying from 0.05‰ near the mouth of the Volga to 11–13‰ in the southeast. The water level fluctuates, and as of 2009, it was 27.16 m below sea level1.
As for forecasts, they vary. Some scientists suggest that by the end of the century, the Caspian Sea could become 34% smaller, and the water level could drop by 9-19 meters by 21002. However, the exact dates and dynamics of sea level change depend on many factors, including climate change, the greenhouse effect, and human activity.
It should be noted that the decline in the water level in the Caspian Sea is a complex process, and its dynamics should be carefully monitored and studied.
What measures are being taken to preserve the Caspian Sea?
The following measures are being taken to preserve the Caspian Sea:
Establishment of a research institute: A special research institute will be established in Kazakhstan to study the issue of shallowing of the Caspian Sea. This institute will cooperate with neighboring countries in solving the problem of shallowing 1.
Developing new rules: Kazakhstan has developed new rules to protect the ecology of the Caspian Sea. They include measures such as refuelling ships, washing cargo holds, filtering and discharging industrial waters into the sea
International cooperation: Caspian states cooperate to address the problem of shallowing of the sea. This includes joint efforts to control pollution and preserve the ecosystem of the Caspian Sea
These measures are aimed at preserving the unique natural resource and maintaining the ecological balance in the Caspian Sea.
Which countries are cooperating to address the problem of shallowing seas?
Iran, Russia, Kazakhstan, Azerbaijan and Turkmenistan are cooperating to address the problem of the shallowing of the Caspian Sea. These five states bordering the Caspian Sea have signed an agreement on the legal status of the Caspian Sea. This agreement sets a formula for dividing its resources and prohibits other countries from stationing military forces on its territory. This is an important step in easing regional tensions and preserving a unique natural resource.
What resources are in the Caspian Sea?
The Caspian Sea contains significant volumes of oil and natural gas, both in offshore fields within the sea itself and onshore in the Caspian Basin. The Caspian is estimated to contain 48 billion barrels of oil and 8.7 trillion cubic meters of gas in proven or probable reserves. This makes the Caspian Sea an important region for the world's energy and economics.
How does oil and gas production affect the ecology of the Caspian Sea?
Oil and gas production
In the Caspian Sea has a significant impact on its ecology:
Water Pollution: The process of oil and gas production involves dumping waste, chemicals and petroleum products into the sea. This can lead to water pollution and pose a threat to marine life.
Accident Risks: Oil platforms and transport vessels can be sources of accidents such as oil spills or explosions.
Ecosystem change: Oil and gas production can change the marine ecosystem, affecting fish stocks, animal migrations and biodiversity.
Loss of Coastal Zones: Construction of oil platforms and infrastructure can result in the loss of coastal zones that are important for marine life.
Changes in water chemistry: Oil and gas emissions can change the chemistry of water, which can affect living organisms.
In general, oil and gas production in the Caspian Sea requires strict control and compliance with environmental standards to minimize negative impacts on the marine environment.
What measures are being taken to protect the ecology of the Caspian Sea?
To save Caspian Sea.
The following measures are taken:
Establishment of a research institute: A special research institute has been established in Kazakhstan to study the issue of shallowing of the Caspian Sea. This institute will cooperate with neighboring countries in solving the problem of shallowing
Developing new rules: Kazakhstan has developed new rules to protect the ecology of the Caspian Sea. They include measures such as refuelling ships, washing cargo holds, filtering and discharging industrial waters into the sea
International cooperation: Caspian states cooperate to address the problem of shallowing of the sea. This includes joint efforts to control pollution and preserve the ecosystem of the Caspian Sea
These measures are aimed at preserving the unique natural resource and maintaining the ecological balance in the Caspian Sea.
in 1992 in Atyrau, under the guidance of the Chairman of the Western Branch of the Academy of Sciences - my mentor, Academician - Aitaliev Schmidt Musayevich - I was given the task of developing a computer climatic automated program for mathematical modeling of the Caspian Sea level, the purpose of this development was to study and forecast future risks and problems of the Ural-Caspian basin in connection with the development of the beginning of the work of JSC "Caspian Shelf" - which later became the pioneer of the Kashagan project in the early distant 90s, as well as fluctuations in the Caspian Sea level, its causes and solutions. 2) a climatic program for mathematical applied modeling of the Ural-Caspian basin with the maintenance of a huge array of information, including space research: monitoring the causes and problems of space probing of the Ural-Caspian basin using nonlinear programming and obtaining output data online, currently the program has been modernized and operates on the basis of artificial intelligence and Big Data.
PROFESSOR OF ECONOMETRICS, MEMBER OF THE NEW YORK ACADEMY OF SCIENCES MUNBAEV NURLAN SARSENBAEVICH
